Yin Zhuo: Iran is preparing to deal with asymmetric warfare means strong U.S. Navy, boats harassment is a way, such as bomb filled with explosives, or the boat is equipped with a number of anti-ship missiles, anti-ship missiles to play with. But anyway, we know from historical experience, or recently, including during the Vietnam War, NATO had wanted to use the boat hit the U.S. aircraft carrier, it wiped out the basic boat. During the first Gulf War, Iraq’s navy and later during the 2003 Iraq war, Iran’s navy swept away by the United States, but also boats of a large ship, basically no effect. Iran can not play the major role, but it’s like mine, it touches a boat to the means of mines, in the past two Iraq war, it is a large number of fishing boats, small boats with a number of civilian vessels to mine, here threw two mines, you do not know that it is not cast mine, the night I voted left, and there is no way to mark, with a large boat to cast mine, people to track you put into what the future mine-hunting is also very convenient. Such a large area you cast, after cast mine, mine do not know where all the boats were not sailing, it is very dangerous. Another is a small submarine to the United States still has a certain threat.
Shui Junyi: Mr. Yin Gang, how do we interpret some of Iran’s latest actions, that it can scientists be assassinated on this matter, and now Iran plausibly, it is said even went to the United States and Britain wrote a letter, we have ample evidence to prove that you United States dry, we have to retaliate. This matter to the past many days, a high profile in Iran continue to bring this up, what is the purpose?
Yin Gang: Iran, this logical, the scientists engaged in research, no matter in what areas of research, to assassinate him is wrong. The key question now there is no evidence, we say that we are doing Israel, Israel colluded with the anti-Iran MKO system is now dry, in the past also something similar crucible, and exposed his true features. But Iran is really evidence, if light out, indeed will play some of the results.
Shui Junyi: at least a certain share in the moral truth.
Yin Gang: But to say that revenge, somewhere in Europe or somewhere in Africa bombed a Jewish target, this probably is not much good for Iran.
Shui Junyi: the world will set off a wave of anti-Iran, because, after all the Jews against Israel, then, is not a trivial matter. We talk about here, in front of Iran’s military spy. But now is a lot of people very worried, and that is whether to impose sanctions on Iran, and even affect the world oil supply, which in the end will be what the situation?
New Year begins, the U.S. sanctions against Iran for the formation of an oil embargo urged international alliance between Iraq’s oil war is intensified in the United States and threats continue to lobby the relevant countries. Stop oil imports from Iran, while Iran has also issued a corresponding warning that Iran may regard any cooperation with the West Gulf oil-exporting countries as an On this topic, we then further discussion. Mr. Yin Gang, this case is that for the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia said?
Comments are: Iran warned the Gulf oil-producing countries do not as an
Yin Gang: is that for Saudi Arabia, because Saudi Arabia has only to break the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s ability to break Iran’s monopoly on oil export capacity.
Shui Junyi: another point that Saudi Arabia have the ability to make up sanctions against Iran because of oil shortage.
Yin Gang: People usually think so, but in fact not the case, Iran’s oil exports every day is 2300000-250 million barrels, after the revolution in Iran’s oil production is falling year by year, the Shah period up to an annual output of 270 million, and now barely reach 200 million, exports of 230-250 million barrels a day, Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity is 400 million barrels, Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity is now over all of Iran’s production capacity, very powerful, is not to sell Iran oil, not blocked, this time fully compensate for Saudi Arabia.
Shui Junyi: and easy, had surplus.
Yin Gang: but also to make money, also bought. If you block the Strait of Hormuz, then Saudi Arabia also has a plan, this plan is the beginning of the eighties, is from the east coast of Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea lay 1200 km oil pipeline, the oil pipeline is very thick, 48 inches , is 1.22 meters, just as wide as the width of plywood, transmission capacity is amazing, the transmission capacity if it is quite in line with operational 500 million barrels, more than Iran, the country’s oil production capacity. If the pipeline fully functioning, then it greatly reduces the Strait of Hormuz blocked risks.
Shui Junyi: Mr. Yin, in the Gulf is to open a so-called global energy summit, today I read a lot of information, including financial news are focused on Iran sanctions, it is not oil sanctions, blockades are not blocked, including Yin Gang said Mr. Among the problems, how do you interpret Iran’s recent attitude, If we give up on me you’re missing my accomplice, I carefully pick up you.
Opinion: The U.S. oil sanctions to be ineffective
Yin Zhuo: Iran the threat is for all countries in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, like the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, are included in the class, it should be said of Iran’s warning with substance, if the U.S. oil blockade it, I sell no oil, and if other countries to follow, but my personal judgments, the United States it is difficult to achieve this goal, the United States as an oil sanctions to be ineffective. Conversely, however, if true to form alliances, then the oil embargo, the Iranian two-step, the first step of threatening all oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia to oil, I put your oil facilities, terminal facilities destroyed with missiles, the you to fight, especially caused by the oil market fluctuations, the fluctuations as long as two months, suddenly surged to the oil to 200-300 U.S. dollars per barrel, that the world economy, including many European countries and the Arab countries can not afford, including Japan, South Korea certainly can not afford.
Shui Junyi: could not carry.
Yin Zhuo: next step is to blockade the Strait of Hormuz problems.
Expert opinion: against Iran’s oil exports will not be achieved overnight
Shui Junyi: But how do we now interpret the United States and Europe to intensified calls for sanctions against Iran, even the United States government recently companies doing business with Iran, including a Chinese company engaged in the sanctions, we also have a foreign ministry statement: any other country above international law, to force other countries to accept
Yin Gang: now address the Iranian oil embargo, will become general, it is a lot of pressure on Iran, a very real threat, not a sword stabbed to add a warning to you, you will cause heavy casualties, and then by cut your scalp in front of you swinging, and a threat, the sanctions are not necessarily sufficient to achieve, as part of the monarchy, to maintain strong pressure to achieve the objective, is to allow Iran to seriously consider how to face the current situation.
Shui Junyi: Iran what will happen should such a situation?
Expert opinion: adequate show of force in order to return to the negotiating table
decent
Yin Gang: I think the leaders of Iran is the name of the Persians is very smart, very realistic, is it in the muscles after a full show, it would be more rapid with the IAEA, the United States, the United Nations to return to the negotiating table.
Shui Junyi: Do you mean Iran will not compromise?
Yin Gang: No, not necessarily compromise.
Shui Junyi: a sense of compromise it.
Yin Gang: Yes, appearance, light muscle is not to fight, but to speak more decent at the negotiating table, and finally have to compromise, no compromise sure to have war, you do not compromise, compromise.
Shui Junyi: Iran understand this.
Yin Gang: It certainly understand this, and it is now increasingly feel the time is getting closer to a showdown.
Shui Junyi: This is a moment of decision in terms of Iran.
Continued tension in the face of US-Iraqi relations, a Russian media to issue such judgments, the relationship between Iran and the West is like a pot of heated water may be boiling temperature at any point, lead to full-scale war, a bullet flying, powder keg will explode. The question is by what this incident struck a deadly powder keg, Iran will not make it sparks?
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